Math Problem

Weighing the risk-reward equation

In case you didn’t catch the story in the news over the past few weeks, there was a group of five Italian scuba divers who died while exploring a deep ocean cave in the Maldives. A sixth diver, a member of the Maldives navy, died while attempting a body recovery. In typical fashion, the way most of the news media reported the tragedy, was sensationalist and fraught with misinformation. Digging deeper into diving forum discussions, and reading posts by the Divers Alert Network, I was able to find some more accurate information. In the end, a small team of expert Finnish cave divers were brought in to recover the bodies successfully. We may never know what actually took place on the dive that killed the Italians, and I’m not going to add to the rampant speculation by offering my own armchair theories here. But I can say with some level of certainty, that it undoubtedly came down to a lack of adequate risk mitigation.

In a similar vein, as I mentioned last week, May 10th was the 30th anniversary of the Mount Everest tragedy that killed eight climbers in 1996. I’ve been re-reading Jon Krakauer’s personal account of that fateful day, and, from his firsthand analysis of how that day unfolded, he also had some things to say about risk mitigation, or the lack thereof. It was a cascade of bad decisions, combined with bad weather, ambition, treacherous conditions, and inexperience, that led to those deaths.

Risk, or rather the fear of the risk of injury or death, is not something I actively think about when it comes to my own pursuits. But that’s not to say I don’t acknowledge that it exists, and take steps to minimize it. It would be silly not to. It’s simply built in to the preparations, whether that’s diving a shipwreck, swimming in open water, riding a bike, traveling far afield, or even just driving a car (possibly the most dangerous thing any of us do). Properly inflating tires, using a swim buoy, wearing a helmet, having backup equipment, keeping gear serviced—it’s all part of the process, and a part that I actually enjoy quite a bit. I also tend to over-prepare and research anything that I do, leaving little to chance or surprise.